Principal of the University of the West Indies Five Islands Campus, Professor C. Justin Robinson, has been examining the 2026 National Budget that was presented to parliament by Prime Minister Gaston Browne on December 4.
In an appearance on the Browne and Browne show on Saturday, Professor Robinson, whose training is in finance and economics, sought to simply the discussion on the budget so that as many people as possible would get a better understanding of the key points.
Turning to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as it is always a key reference point for most budgets, Prof. Robinson explained GDP as the size of the economic pie, noting that when the pie grows, it becomes easier for individuals to gain more without depriving others. Conversely, he explained, when GDP remains constant or declines, this means that there is less to distribute in the society.
Professor Robinson shared that when he moved to Antigua and Barbuda in 2023 and examined the economy closely, two things immediately stood out. First, the economy has a natural tendency to grow, with relatively few years of negative growth since independence. This, he said, is a positive structural feature.
He attributed part of this to Antigua and Barbuda’s early investment in tourism and hospitality, which provided a long-term advantage. He also pointed to the entrepreneurial energy of Antiguans and Barbudans, describing a strong cultural willingness to hustle, invest, and create opportunity.
However, Professor Robinson also noted that much of the historical growth was fuelled by borrowing, which later became a drag on the economy. Major projects such as Royal Antiguan and Heritage Quay were financed through government borrowing, contributing to a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 148% at one point.
While these investments initially boosted growth, over time the accumulated debt constrained fiscal space, slowing progress until periods like the Cricket World Cup, followed by downturns during global crises. He referenced the 25% contraction during the global financial crisis and the 17% decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Professor Robinson explained that despite economic growth, fiscal management historically lagged, with Antigua and Barbuda running primary deficits for much of its post-independence history. In simple terms, this meant borrowing to service existing debt — likened to “digging a hole to fill a hole.”
The turning point, he said, is the achievement of a primary surplus, where revenues exceed expenditures before debt servicing. He highlighted that Antigua and Barbuda has now recorded two consecutive years of growth with a primary surplus, and even an overall surplus.
Professor Robinson described this combination — sustained growth alongside strong fiscal balances — as transformative. Antigua and Barbuda, he noted, is no longer simply growing, but growing responsibly, with sound fiscal fundamentals underpinning development.
This, he concluded, represents a powerful platform for long-term stability, resilience, and inclusive national progress, setting the stage for deeper discussion on economic policy and the future direction of the country.
