The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gives Antigua and Barbuda a positive economic review following its latest Article Four consultation held with the government and which concluded last week.
“Antigua and Barbuda’s post-pandemic economic expansion is continuing. Real output is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with growth estimated at 4.3 percent, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup). Inflation was elevated in 2024, reflecting contributions from specific items, notably communication, as well as increases in indirect taxes,” the report from the IMF Executive Board stated.
It said the recovery in nominal GDP, along with improved fiscal balances, brought down the public debt from around 100 percent of GDP in 2020 to 67 percent in 2024. However, gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10 percent of GDP in the medium term. Substantial domestic and external arrears, albeit with domestic arrears uncertain in size, have limited financing options.
The report quoted the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) preliminary estimates as stating that the current account deficit narrowed to 7 percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting both a higher service trade balance—mainly tourism receipts—and a smaller goods deficit due to a contraction in imports. FDI inflows were resilient to tightening global financial conditions, it noted, continued to support ongoing hotel construction. Credit growth, it added, is recovering, with nonperforming loans contained.
Whilst noting that economic growth had surpassed the pre-pandemic levels in 2024, the IMF nonetheless is forecasting a slowdown in economic expansion for 2025. It now anticipates that expansion would be half a percent point less than earlier forecast of 3 percent to two-and-a-half percent.
The IMF said the recent improvements in tax revenue are welcome, with further domestic revenue mobilization needed in the medium term to ensure fiscal sustainability.
“Antigua and Barbuda’s tax revenues remain below the authorities’ fiscal resilience guideline targets and are low by peer country standards. The authorities’ 2024 Budget measures have started to close the gap, but more will be needed in the medium term,” the report noted.
