A strengthening El Niño, approaching record levels for this time of year, has pushed the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season further toward below-normal activity, according to climatologist Dale Destin. Writing on his 268Weather blog, Destin said the latest and final update to his seasonal forecast now places the season most likely in the below-normal category, although there remains a slight possibility that activity could be well below normal. The forecast, which incorporates data available through August 30, calls for 10 named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 74. The latest projection represents another downward adjustment from Destin’s July forecast of 12 named storms, four hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an ACE of 99. Destin places a 70 percent confidence range at 7 to 13 named storms, two to five hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes, and an ACE between 40 and 123. According to Destin, the principal factor behind the increasingly quiet outlook is a very strong and strengthening El Niño, which is near record strength for this point in the year. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing vertical wind shear, creating conditions that are less favorable for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Saharan dust remains another factor contributing to uncertainty. Destin noted that excessive concentrations of Saharan dust could suppress tropical activity even further. The updated forecast assigns a 49 percent probability of a below-normal season, compared with a 33 percent chance of near-normal activity and an 18 percent probability of an above-normal season. There is also a 17 percent chance of a super-hypoactive season, defined as an ACE value below 39. The outlook for the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season, August through October, has also been revised downward. Destin is forecasting eight named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes during the peak period, with an ACE of 67. Despite the increasingly subdued forecast, Dale Destin cautioned against interpreting a below-normal season as meaning the Caribbean and Atlantic are out of danger. He stressed that a below-normal season does not mean there will be no hurricanes or significant impacts.
