Tuesday 12th June, 2018-Antiguan Climatologist Dale Destin is reporting that the June updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is indicating it will most likely be near normal. The prediction is for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 93, 11 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.
Writing on his blog, Destin said “the forecast is relatively good news for because, during a near normal season, there is a 33% chance of a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) affecting, i.e. passing within 120 miles of, Antigua and Barbuda.” “By comparison, during an active season, he noted that the chance soars to 75%.” He added that Antigua and Barbuda has never had a major hurricane during a near normal season.
These new numbers represent notable decrease below those of the previous forecast. Previously, the forecast called for an ACE of 119, 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Current and projected cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, across the tropical North Atlantic, are mainly responsible for the downward trend in this year’s forecast hurricane season activity.
Destin stated that if this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the least active since 2015. Notwithstanding, a season with activity second only to 2017, since 2005, cannot be ruled out.
Another update on the 2018 hurricane season that began on 1st June, 2018 is expected in July.